Middle East War is an inevitable

I believe a Middle East War is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation. After all, it is the norm throughout history that if the global economy doesn’t recover, people go to war.

For any anyone out there thinking that President Obama’s discussions with newly elected Iranian president Hassan Rouhani are going to lead anywhere, they are just delusional …. but of course everyone has the right to dream.

In talking to both American and Middle East analysts, one hears all kinds of theories about why the Obama Administration has not been forthcoming on the Assad threat – rightly or wrongly so – . Some are mundane and others are quite interesting but whose basis in reality lacks the nuances policy makers usually pursue.

Let me tell you what my theory is.

While it looks like President Obama wants to strip Iran of its nuclear ambitions through negotiations he has convinced the Israelis that if, by the summer of 2014, he fails to strip Iran of its nuclear program, he will back a large-scale military attack on the Iranian infrastructure using direct US power.

So the Iranians, unaware of this promise (Even though they know it may very well happen), have asked for full protection for the Assad regime from any US military aggression in return for opening a dialogue; hence the latest talks with Iran’s newly elected president, Hassan Rouhani . The US, backed by Russia, agreed in return for dismantling the CW program of Assad, which incidentally happens to end in the summer of 2014.

Because an attack against Assad is tied to the US-Iranian negotiations, the NSC has concluded that if negotiations face an impasse, the US will no longer be under obligation to honor its pact with Iran when it comes to attacking either Assad or the Iranian nuclear program. By then, Assad would have been stripped of his CW to make an attack safer and wider in scope. Meanwhile, the collection of intelligence against the atrocities of the Assad regime continue quietly to form the basis for a future attack and the sadistic targeting of pregnant women by shooting them in the uterus by pro-Assad snipers is a treasure as far as the US is concerned backed by the testimony of British doctors.

As far as Israel is concerned, the Israelis are not happy with this solution because they want an immediate action against Iran, but they acquiesced reluctantly because an attack against Iran backed by US military might has a higher chance of success than Israel attacking on its own.

So if we follow the above scenario, it seems that the world will go dark on Syria until the summer of 2014.

As far as Iran is concerned, I believe the Iranians will drag the negotiations until that point when they may open some irrelevant sites for inspection or be ready to announce a nuclear device is ready. Because Obama is more disposed to avoiding confrontation, Iran may be betting on simply avoiding a US attack until the US President can no longer be in any position, domestically, to carry out such an attack. Therefore, weakening Obama at home becomes an Iranian top priority as of now.

One hole in this theory centers around the US believing Assad will simply hand over all his CW capabilities. Do not be surprised if they surface again, should negotiations with Iran break down and threats of a US attack loom largely in the background.

Bottom Line: All those diplomatic talks are I believe nothing but a distraction by the Iranians to gain time until they are ready to announce a nuclear device is ready. After all, and for them, this is a matter of fate & destiny more than anything else.

It is a fact that Iran’s Shiites leaders believe that at the end of times, a 9th-century prophet, the 12th Imam, will reappear to kill all the infidels and raise the flag of Islam in all four corners of the world. Indeed, the Islamic theocracy ruling Iran believes that apocalyptic scenarios are necessary before Islam’s savior, the Mahdi, or “Hidden Imam,” returns; believes that death in the jihad results in instant paradise for the “martyr” and believes the oft recited Islamist sentiment that “Muslims love death as Westerners love life”.

In short, Iran has a worldview that is markedly different than the one that guides Western decision-making. Unlike nuclear-armed Western secular democracies, a nuclear Islamic supremacist regime in Iran is a must for the Iranians whatever it takes…and the time is now.

So although very few people are willing to even discuss the issue today, I foresee a major war happening by sometime later next year to the latest in the Middle East which implications could be absolutely huge.

Besides, I am afraid that the bureaucracy wants a war. This will distract everyone from the NSA and justify what they have been doing. They need a distraction for the economic decline that is coming as the recent government shutdown has done nothing but postponed dealing with our economic problems till early next year.

Brace yourself for the worst…. It is going to get real ugly.

Share your thoughts.

Ziad K. Abdelnour is Founder & President of the US Committee for a Free Lebanon – America’s Pro- Lebanon lobby – and co-Author of Ending Syria’s Occupation of Lebanon.

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I'm a Lebanese American physical commodities trader, financier, and author. The President and Chief Executive officer of Blackhawk Partners, Inc., – a “private family office” that supports highly accomplished operating executives in expanding their companies organically through business acquisitions and physical commodities trades (mostly oil derivatives) around the world.